Interesting Theory: Black Widow a Hit?

Interesting Theory: Black Widow a Hit?

Disney says it.  So, it must be true.

Mickey the Great and Terrible is claiming a global haul of $230 million world wide for Black Widow’s opening weekend.

Nothing suspicious about that.  

Unless you actually look at it for a second. It might have a few problems then.

$60 million on Disney Plus

$80 million domestic Box Office

$79 million foreign BO.

These numbers are really, really ROUND.  I mean they hit their objectives on the nose.  And…AND they got exactly what Disney said they were going to get.  Nothing suspicious about that is there?

There is a code of silence among the studios, thou shalt not speak of the streaming numbers.  Yet, Disney broke (or appears to have broken) this long-standing Omerta. Why?

The answer is simple.  The box office stinks for a Marvel film.

The ticket sales fell off a cliff between Friday and Saturday. There were a ton of reports about block-ticket sales for groups of people who didn’t show up.  Just like for Captain Marvel, you had a ton of Twitter picks of empty theaters just as the lights went down. Also, Disney has NOT said whether the streaming take is US domestic or Worldwide. Which means it’s Worldwide.

Marvel Studios has a mystique of every release being a mega-hit.

And that is about the only thing that Disney has going for it’s share-price.  

That is the real deal here. The Disney share-price. It went from $172 Thursday to $182 on Monday and that is still severely overvalued. 

Disney has the numbers for this film are so deeply buried that we will never know how much money they made this weekend.  But there is no way they can hide the amount of money they will make next weekend.  

Which will be about 70% less.

Share this post

Comments (6)

  • EXALT Reply

    You know what Omertà is? Awesome. And I agree that Disney has been crowing a bit too much these last few days – more than I ever remember them doing in the past.
    “Marvel Studios has a mystique of every release being a mega-hit.”
    We can add to this the fact that BW is the MCU’s first movie outing since 2019 and its first post-Covid offering, so it needs to have an even greater mystique as “the movie that saved movie theaters.”

    July 12, 2021 at 7:58 pm
  • Wazdaka Reply

    After the cap marv mystery, this theory has legs

    So, how much of a pyramid scheme is Disney?

    Too big to fail, or a ticking bomb?

    July 12, 2021 at 8:14 pm
  • Dexionidas Reply

    Someone I value invited me, so I went with a few others Saturday night. The theatre was maybe half full.

    July 12, 2021 at 9:11 pm
    • Corey Ashcraft Reply

      Honestly, I think the movie will turn a profit. It will be deemed a hit by post-Corona chan benchmarks. However, the lengthy delay absolutely devestaed the enthusiasm for this movie. If it had come out as planned during late Spring Early Summer 2020 I think it would be a more clear cut hit.

      Personally, I want to see it but I think I’ll wait until it can be rented or streamed at a reasonable price. I just have no desire to run to a movie theatre to see a movie. HBO Max has been great and the best thing about it are the new movies that are closed captioned. I think they managed to change my viewing habits.

      July 13, 2021 at 5:24 am
      • DFCtomm Reply

        steal all media

        July 13, 2021 at 8:49 pm
  • DFCtomm Reply

    Doesn’t really matter. It takes even more money to cover up a failed movie. It may momentarily preserve the stock price and prestige, but it will all come out in the earnings report.

    July 13, 2021 at 8:46 pm

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *