Interesting Theory: Black Widow a Hit?

Disney says it.  So, it must be true.

Mickey the Great and Terrible is claiming a global haul of $230 million world wide for Black Widow’s opening weekend.

Nothing suspicious about that.  

Unless you actually look at it for a second. It might have a few problems then.

$60 million on Disney Plus

$80 million domestic Box Office

$79 million foreign BO.

These numbers are really, really ROUND.  I mean they hit their objectives on the nose.  And…AND they got exactly what Disney said they were going to get.  Nothing suspicious about that is there?

There is a code of silence among the studios, thou shalt not speak of the streaming numbers.  Yet, Disney broke (or appears to have broken) this long-standing Omerta. Why?

The answer is simple.  The box office stinks for a Marvel film.

The ticket sales fell off a cliff between Friday and Saturday. There were a ton of reports about block-ticket sales for groups of people who didn’t show up.  Just like for Captain Marvel, you had a ton of Twitter picks of empty theaters just as the lights went down. Also, Disney has NOT said whether the streaming take is US domestic or Worldwide. Which means it’s Worldwide.

Marvel Studios has a mystique of every release being a mega-hit.

And that is about the only thing that Disney has going for it’s share-price.  

That is the real deal here. The Disney share-price. It went from $172 Thursday to $182 on Monday and that is still severely overvalued. 

Disney has the numbers for this film are so deeply buried that we will never know how much money they made this weekend.  But there is no way they can hide the amount of money they will make next weekend.  

Which will be about 70% less.