Ooof… Guardians of Galaxy 3 May Be in Trouble
The initial projections are very weak.
The Trades are predicting $130 million opening weekend.
Usually the Trades (Variety, Deadline and the rest) will put their thumb on the scale for an opening weekend because that is what a studio wants to see.
This means that either the trades think $130 million is the most sunny and optimistic projection they can come up with and maintain their reputations. OR they think that it will earn about that and they can afford to be honest for once because it stars Chris Pratt. Besides so far as they are concerned, the filthy Christian will have already had a $1 billion film already by the time Guardians of the Galaxy 3 launches, and he needs to come down a peg or two so far as they are concerned.*
What this really weak projection means is that they don’t think it will do any better than Antman 3.
Assuming Gunn was allowed to deliver a good movie and the Victoria Alonso was kept the hell away from it, then it might be carried by word of mouth. But that said, it would have to have incredibly strong word of mouth.
The fundamentals however, are pretty weak. There hasn’t been a Guardians of the Galaxy movie in the theaters since 2017 when Marvel was at its height. Let’s not forget, you didn’t need to see any of the other Marvel films (to include the first GOG movie) when that one came out. Both films functioned as a self sustaining entry points.
That is no longer the case. You had to have watched both Avengers movies, the one Disney + Guardians of the Galaxy Holiday Special, (and if Kang is in it Loki and Antman 3) to be completely up to date when the film starts. Killing off OG Gamora and then introducing a new version of her with no memories of her relationship with Quill will be a serious drag on the film. Then there will be some confusion over Quill and Mantis being brother and sister (GOG Holiday Special). Finally there is going to be the issue of various characters getting killed off, which won’t go over well. Both Rocket and Drax are strongly rumored to be dying off in the film. Dave Bautista has been very clear that this is his last GOG film and while I don’t like him, I can’t blame him for dumping the role of comic relief second banana in an MCU that has clearly hit the skids.
But as I said even with a weak opening weekend it might find the legs it needs to crack the $1 billion mark with good word of mouth. However, The Dark Herald’s own spit-in-the-wind projection puts it at $800 million and if it does have a $130 million opening (when the studio get 90% of the box office take), then it will just (and I mean barely just) be in the black. Below $600 million (very doubtful) it will be in bomb territory. If it falls into >$500 million like Antman 3, (not going to happen, not a chance) Feige will be moving on to his next job because he already shitcanned his fall guy.
Guardians of the Galaxy vol III will be the last of the James Gunn movies for Marvel and will be released in three weeks on Cinco de Mayo. Have your Margaritas ready.
*Mario Bros. made $677 as of this writing and it only had a 42% drop-off on its second weekend, plus Hollywood was already mad about it.
